Shell Plc provides second quarter 2024 update and current expectations

Shell Plc
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Shel plc (LON:SHEL) has provided the following update to the second quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on August 1, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.

See appendix for previous quarter historical data.

Integrated Gas

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d)940 – 980 
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)6.8 – 7.2 
Underlying opex1.0 – 1.2 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation1.2 – 1.6 
Taxation charge0.8 – 1.1 
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q2’23, but lower compared to Q1’24 due to seasonality.

Upstream

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d)1,720 – 1,820 
Underlying opex2.1 – 2.7 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation2.5 – 2.9 
Taxation charge1.8 – 2.6 
Other Considerations:
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2’24 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2’24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion.

Marketing

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Sales volumes (kb/d)2,700 – 3,100 
Underlying opex2.5 – 2.9 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation0.3 – 0.7 
Taxation charge0.2 – 0.5 
Other Considerations:
Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q1’24.

 Chemicals & Products

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Indicative refining margin$8/bbl 
Indicative chemicals margin$155/tonneChemicals sub segment Adjusted Earnings are expected to be close to break-even in Q2’24.
Refinery utilisation91% – 95% 
Chemicals utilisation78% – 82% 
Underlying opex1.9 – 2.3 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation0.7 – 0.9 
Taxation charge0.1 – 0.5 
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q1’24.

 Renewables and Energy Solutions

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
Adjusted Earnings(0.5) – 0.1 

 Corporate

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
Adjusted Earnings(0.7) – (0.5) 

 Shell Group

$ billionsQ2’24 OutlookComment
CFFO:
Tax paid3.1 – 3.9 
Derivative movements(2) – 2Derivative movements and working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty.
Working capital(2) – 2
Other Shell Group Considerations:
Non-cash post tax impairments of $1.5 – $2 billion are expected, and mainly include the Singapore Chemicals & Products assets ($0.6 – $0.8 billion) as well as Rotterdam HEFA ($0.6 – $1.0 billion), which is reported in the Marketing segment. These items are reported as identified items.

Guidance

The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).

Consensus

The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 25, 2024.

Appendix

Indicative Margins

For Integrated Gas Q1’24 realised prices have been restated. There is no impact of this revision on previously
reported segment financials and other key performance indicators.

Integrated Gas Realised PricesQ1’24Q1’24 Restated
Liquids ($/bbl)72.7267.29
Gas ($/thousand scf)8.867.84
Chemicals & ProductsQ1’24Q2’24 Updated Outlook
Indicative refining margin$12/bbl$8/bbl
Indicative chemicals margin$150/tonne$155/tonne

Volume Data

 Q1’24 AdjustedQ2’24 QPR OutlookQ2’24 Updated Outlook
Integrated Gas   
Production (kboe/d)992920 – 980940 – 980
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)7.66.8 – 7.46.8 – 7.2
Upstream   
Production (kboe/d)1,8721,630 – 1,8301,720 – 1,820
Marketing   
Sales volumes (kb/d)2,7632,700 – 3,2002,700 – 3,100
Chemicals & Products   
Refinery utilisation91%87% – 95%91% – 95%
Chemicals utilisation73%72% – 80%78% – 82%

Underlying Opex

$ billionsQ1’24Q1’24 AdjustedQ2’24 Updated Outlook
Production and manufacturing expenses5.8  
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses3.0  
Research and development0.2  
Operating Expenses (Opex)9.09.0 
Less: Identified Items (0.1) 
Underlying Opex 9.1 
    of which:   
    Integrated Gas1.01.01.0 – 1.2
    Upstream2.42.42.1 – 2.7
    Marketing2.62.62.5 – 2.9
    Chemicals & Products2.12.11.9 – 2.3
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.70.8 

Depreciation, depletion and amortisation

$ billionsQ1’24Q1’24 AdjustedQ2’24 Updated Outlook
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation5.95.9 
Less: Identified Items 0.2 
Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) 5.7 
    of which:   
    Integrated Gas1.41.41.2 – 1.6
    Upstream2.82.72.5 – 2.9
    Marketing0.50.50.3 – 0.7
    Chemicals & Products1.00.90.7 – 0.9
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.1 

Tax Charge

$ billionsQ1’24Q1’24 AdjustedQ2’24 Updated Outlook
Taxation Charge3.63.6 
Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment (0.5) 
Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) 4.1 
    of which:   
    Integrated Gas0.81.00.8 – 1.1
    Upstream2.12.51.8 – 2.6
    Marketing0.40.40.2 – 0.5
    Chemicals & Products0.20.30.1 – 0.5
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.1 

Adjusted Earnings

The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).

$ billionsQ1’24Q1’24 AdjustedQ2’24 Updated Outlook
Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders7.47.4 
Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders (0.3) 
Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders (0.6) 
Adjusted Earnings 7.7 
    of which:   
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.60.2(0.5) – 0.1
    Corporate(0.4)(0.5)(0.7) – (0.5)

Cautionary Note

The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The term “joint venture”, “joint operations”, “joint arrangements”, and “associates” may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownership interest with one or more parties.  The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

The numbers presented in this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures due to rounding.

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