GSK Plc has announced its 3rd quarter results.
| Q3 2024 sales and core earnings growth driven by strong performance of Specialty Medicines helping to offset lower Vaccines sales | |
| • | Total Q3 2024 sales £8.0 billion -2% AER; +2% CER |
| • | Vaccines sales -15%. Shingrix -7% and Arexvy -72% reflecting ACIP guideline changes, prioritisation of COVID vaccinations in the US and annualisation of Arexvy launch in Q3 2023 |
| • | Specialty Medicines sales +19%. HIV sales +12%. Oncology +94%. Respiratory/Immunology and other +14% |
| • | General Medicines sales +7%. Trelegy +16% |
| • | Total operating profit -86% and Total EPS -100% driven by a charge of £1.8 billion ($2.3 billion) in relation to the Zantac settlement |
| • | Core operating profit +5% and Core EPS +5% reflecting strong Specialty Medicines performance, together with effective cost management |
| • | Cash generated from operations in the quarter £2.5 billion with Free cash flow of £1.3 billion |
| (Financial Performance – Q3 2024 results unless otherwise stated, growth % and commentary at CER as defined on page 52). | |
| Q3 2024 | Year to date | ||||||||||
| £m | % AER | % CER | £m | % AER | % CER | ||||||
| Turnover | 8,012 | (2) | 2 | 23,259 | 4 | 8 | |||||
| Turnover ex COVID | 8,012 | (2) | 2 | 23,258 | 5 | 9 | |||||
| Total operating profit | 189 | (90) | (86) | 3,325 | (46) | (41) | |||||
| Total operating margin % | 2.4% | (21.6ppts) | (20.6ppts) | 14.3% | (13.4ppts) | (12.5ppts) | |||||
| Total EPS | (1.4p) | >(100) | (100) | 53.0p | (53) | (48) | |||||
| Core operating profit | 2,761 | – | 5 | 7,717 | 10 | 16 | |||||
| Core operating margin % | 34.5% | 0.4ppts | 1.0ppts | 33.2% | 1.6ppts | 2.2ppts | |||||
| Core EPS | 49.7p | (1) | 5 | 136.2p | 8 | 14 | |||||
| Cash generated from operations | 2,499 | – | 5,275 | 19 | |||||||
| Further progress in R&D with growth prospects strengthened in all key therapeutic areas: | |
| • | Infectious Diseases: EU approval for Arexvy in adults aged 50-59 at increased risk, and positive new data indicates protection over three RSV seasons; US FDA file acceptance for gepotidacin in uncomplicated UTI; bepirovirsen granted SENKU designation in Japan for chronic hepatitis B |
| • | HIV: Real-world studies demonstrate 99% effectiveness for Apretude, the only approved long-acting medicine for HIV PrEP |
| • | Respiratory/Immunology: Positive results announced for ultra long-acting biologic, depemokimab, for phase III ANCHOR trial (CRSwNP)(1) and full results for SWIFT-1&2 trials (severe asthma) supporting filing for severe asthma and CRSwNP before year end with dual indication, potential launch in 2025. Positive headline results announced for phase III MATINEE trial for Nucala in COPD. Nucala approved in Japan for CRSwNP |
| • | Oncology: Expanded US FDA approval for Jemperli in endometrial cancer; Blenrep filed in US, EU and Japan and received Breakthrough Therapy Designation in China; US FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for GSK5764227 (B7-H3-targeted antibody-drug conjugate) in small-cell lung cancer |
| 2024 guidance confirmed; Q3 2024 dividend of 15p declared and continue to expect 60p full year dividend: | |
| • | 2024 turnover growth of 7% to 9%; Core operating profit growth of 11% to 13%; Core EPS growth of 10% to 12%. Expected to deliver broadly around the middle of existing ranges |
Guidance all at CER and excluding COVID-19 solutions
Emma Walmsley, Chief Executive Officer: “We have delivered another quarter of sales and core operating profit growth, and further good progress in R&D. Strong growth in specialty medicines helped to offset lower vaccine sales and reflected successful new product launches in oncology and HIV, as well as the resilience we have now built into GSK’s portfolio and performance. Our pipeline continues to strengthen with 11 positive phase III trials reported so far this year and we are currently planning launches for 5 major new product approval opportunities next year: Blenrep, Depemokimab, Nucala for COPD, Gepotidacin, and our new vaccine to prevent meningitis (MenABCWY). We also resolved the vast majority of Zantac litigation in the quarter, to remove uncertainty and so we can focus forward. All this means we are on track to deliver our 2024 guidance, and we are even more confident in our 2026 and 2031 outlooks.”
The Total results are presented in summary above and on page 8 and Core results reconciliations are presented on pages 20 and 23. Core results are a non-IFRS measure that may be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, or superior to, information presented in accordance with IFRS. The following terms are defined on page 52: Core results, £% or AER% growth, CER% growth, COVID-19 solutions, turnover excluding COVID-19 solutions; and other non-IFRS measures. GSK provides guidance on a Core results basis only, for the reasons set out on page 18. All expectations, guidance and targets regarding future performance and dividend payments should be read together with ‘Guidance and outlooks, assumptions and cautionary statements’ on page 54. (1) CRSwNP – Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.
2024 Guidance
GSK confirms its full-year sales, core profit and EPS guidance at constant exchange rates (CER) and expects to deliver broadly around the middle of the existing ranges. All guidance, expectations and full-year growth rates exclude any contributions from COVID-19 solutions.
Despite some challenges this quarter, particularly with lower than anticipated vaccine demand and a tough comparator, GSK delivered growth in both sales and core profits in the quarter at CER. Specialty Medicines continue to grow strongly, particularly reflecting successful new launches in Oncology and for long-acting HIV medicines. General Medicines, including Trelegy, also continued to perform better than expected.
Sales are expected to grow between 7 to 9 per cent range at CER. Improved sales performances in Specialty and General Medicines are expected to offset lower sales growth of Vaccines this year, primarily due to lower sales of Arexvy and Shingrix. Key factors driving Arexvy performance are guideline restrictions, prioritisation of COVID vaccination in the US, and an unfavourable comparison to the vaccine’s outstanding launch last year.
| All Guidance excludes the contributions of COVID-19 solutions | Confirmed 2024 guidance at CER | Previous 2024 guidance at CER |
| Turnover | Increase between 7% to 9% | Increase between 7% to 9% |
| Core operating profit | Increase between 11% to 13% | Increase between 11% to 13% |
| Core earnings per share | Increase between 10% to 12% | Increase between 10% to 12% |
This guidance is supported by the following revised turnover expectations for full-year 2024 at CER:
| All turnover expectations exclude the contributions of COVID-19 solutions | Revised 2024 guidance at CER | Previous 2024 guidance at CER |
| Vaccines | Decrease low-single digit per cent in turnover | Increase low to mid-single digit per cent in turnover |
| Specialty Medicines | Increase high teens per cent in turnover | Increase mid to high teens per cent in turnover |
| General Medicines | Increase mid-single digit per cent in turnover | Increase low to mid-single digit per cent in turnover |
Core operating profit is expected to grow between 11 to 13 per cent at CER. This is despite a 6 percentage point impact to operating profit growth following the loss of the majority of Gardasil royalties effective from the beginning of 2024. SG&A continues to be expected to grow low-single digits, with effective cost control driving operating leverage and further margin improvements. R&D expenditure is expected to increase slightly below sales growth and royalty income is expected to be around £600 million for the full year.
Core earnings per share is expected to increase between 10 to 12 percent at CER. Expectations for non-controlling interests remain unchanged relative to 2023, and GSK continues to anticipate an increase in the core effective tax rate to around 17% for the full year following implementation of new global minimum corporate income tax rules which came into effect from 1 January 2024 in line with the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development ‘Pillar 2’ model framework.
Additional commentary
Dividend policy
The Dividend policy and the expected pay-out ratio remain unchanged. Consistent with this, and reflecting strong business performance during the quarter, GSK has declared a dividend for Q3 2024 of 15p per share and expects to declare a dividend of 60p per share for the full year 2024.
COVID-19 solutions
For the full year 2024, GSK does not anticipate any further COVID-19 pandemic-related sales or operating profit. Consequently, and in comparison to 2023, it is anticipated that the full year growth in sales and Core operating profit will be adversely impacted by one and two percentage points, respectively.
Exchange rates
If exchange rates were to hold at the closing rates on 30 September 2024 ($1.34/£1, €1.20/£1 and Yen 191/£1) for the rest of 2024, the estimated impact on 2024 Sterling turnover growth for GSK would be -5% and if exchange gains or losses were recognised at the same level as in 2023, the estimated impact on 2024 Sterling Core Operating Profit growth for GSK would be -8%.
Results presentation
A conference call and webcast for investors and analysts of the quarterly results will be hosted by Emma Walmsley, CEO, at 12 noon GMT (US EDT at 8 am) on 30 October 2024. Presentation materials will be published on www.gsk.com prior to the webcast and a transcript of the webcast will be published subsequently.
Notwithstanding the inclusion of weblinks, information available on the company’s website, or from non GSK sources, is not incorporated by reference into this Results Announcement.
